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During our most recent podcast I attempted to explain what Average Daily Theoretical (ADT) was all about. If you didn’t catch our podcast, listen to it HERE. The idea behind ADT is that it’s what you’re worth (theoretically) to the casino each and every time you walk into their establishment. But I’m not sure that I did the best job of properly explaining how it works in the time frame I was allotted, so I’m going to try again where I have plenty of space to ramble.
How much you’re worth to a casino is NOT how much money you actually lose, although that certainly doesn’t hurt. What is more important is how much money you risk. While this scenario is just as true at table games, I’m going to stick to slot/video poker for my examples, and really just video poker. One other thing you need to know: This is only applicable for those that have a player’s club card and have it inserted into their machine at which they’re playing.
The rule of thumb is to try and run approximately $30,000 per day through the machine, doing so over a minimum of four hours. Now, again, remember it’s about putting your money at risk, I’m not proposing you walk into the casino with a $30,000 bankroll. I dare say you could probably get by with $750-ish per day to hit an average of $30,000 per day. So how do I turn $750 into $30,000? Well, first of all I’m not actually walking away up $29,250. What I’m trying to do is I’m trying to put $30K through the machine by winning and giving it back to the casino, then winning some more and giving it back to the casino, all while losing as little of my own bankroll as possible.
So how do I do that? Well, watch: If I play $5 video poker at maximum bet (always bet maximum bet) I am playing one hand of video poker for $25. The machine will register my first hand at video poker as $25. But I haven’t won or lost yet, what gives? It doesn’t matter! See, if I lose that hand (ie. I’m playing Jacks or Better [herein: JoB], and I don’t get a pair of Jacks [or better]), I’m still credited for playing $25 through the machine. So let’s go back to our hypothetical, but this time I win the hand. If I play one hand of JoB for $25 and I get a pair of Jacks, I get my money back. From a win/loss standpoint, I’m even, right? But from the casino’s viewpoint, I’ve just given them $25 in play…even though I’m even from a bankroll standpoint. Now, let’s say I play ANOTHER hand of JoB for $25 and I get two pair, because two pair pays 2 to 1, I not only get my $25 bet back but the casino awards me $25. So now, I’ve played two hands of JoB, I’m up $25 but the casino sees me as having given them $50 in play. Get it? They take each hand you wager at the video poker machine (regardless of win or loss) and add each hand up based not on what you’re won or loss, but based on how much you’ve waged (commonly referred to as “running through the machine”).
Whew, you get all that? So now you understand how you get to a $30,000 per day gambling session. One quick point before I move on to more math, and that is the four hour of play per day I first mentioned. Why four hours? Because, again, it’s all about risk and giving the casino a chance at your bankroll when it comes to your ADT. Sure, you could play at a $100 video poker machine, and at max bet, play through $500 per hand and hit $30K in no time at all. But you wouldn’t really be giving the casino a fair shot at your bankroll (over and above the money it’ll take to hit the $30,000 marker). So plan on sitting down at your video poker machine and being there for a minimum of four hours (bathroom breaks are encouraged/allowed).
So, congratulations! You’ve done the math, you’ve been playing for four hours and you’ve hit your $30K play for the day. If you want to quit, go ahead, you’ve earned it. If you want to keep playing, that’s fine too. But remember, you’ll probably want to play tomorrow, so keep your bankroll and stamina up and consider calling it a day. I like to shoot for $30,000/day while others like to do $20K, $25K, $40K, ect etc per day. I’m quite happy with the Caesar’s Entertainment offers (free rooms, cash, meals) I receive for $30K per day so that’s why I’m writing this post using the $30,000 threshold. Ok, back on track. Now that I’ve played $30K through on day one, if I never wager another hand of video poker for the rest of the trip, the casino would look at me as having an average daily theoretical of $30,000 with them. Not too shabby. But I like to gamble multiple days while I’m in Vegas. So now that means I have start all over again the next day. I have to run through as close to $30K the next day so that I can maintain my ADT of $30,000 and get the great offers I’ve come accustomed too. But what if I only gamble $10,000 through on Day Two? Then what will happen is the casino will add up my $30,000 from Day One and my $10,000 play through on Day Two and average those two numbers into an ADT of $20,000. See why I’m worth more to the casino after Day One then I am to them on Day Two? Now, if you’re okay with an ADT of $20,000 (and I’m not being all judgey when I say that) then $30K on one day and $10K on another is just fine. For that matter, I could do $40K and $20K between two days and I’d hit my self-imposed $30,000/day ADT. The point is (and I swear I have one), keep in mind that the casino you’re playing at will average out how much you gambled through based upon the number of days you gambled.
Whew! This was a long blog post! I hope you made it through! Now do you understand how ADT works? It’s the amount of money you run through the video poker (or slot, or table game) divided by the number of days you gamble. It’s a pretty safe rule of thumb to figure the casino has an average “per trip” for you, as well as, an ADT based on your past six months and past 12 months. Rumor had it that Caesars Entertainment did this and maybe even kept an average 5 year ADT too. I think that offers are really based on your last 6 trips and last 6 month ADT.
One final caveat, don’t gamble more than you can afford just to beef up your ADT. It does no good to have a ton of offers rolling in if you’ve maxed out your credit cards getting to that status. Make the most of your bankroll by concentrating your play to as few days as possible, but for the longest amount of time. I dare say that if you could endure a one day $100,000 play through over 10 hour day, do that and don’t gamble for the rest of your trip! Imagine the offers you’d get then!
Comps and the Average Daily Theoretical
I’m sure you’ve heard someone say, ‘wow you won so much, they’ll give you anything you want’.
No, that’s not true. That’s one of the biggest misconceptions about casino comp policy.
In reality, the casinos do not really care how much you win or lose. Sort of. I’ll explain why the ‘sort of’ in a bit, but generally when it comes to comps, the casino cares more about your Average Daily Theoretical (ADT).
WHAT IS ADT?
Simply stated, your ADT is a formula the casino uses to determine how much you will lost in the future if you continue to play using your gambling history. Your ADT is your theoretical value to the casino. Casinos care about theoretical value – rather than actual value – because they’re dealing with hundreds of thousands or millions of patrons. For the casino, the theoretical value of its’ player base, with almost statistical certainty, materializes as the actual value because of the large sample size of hands, dice rolls, and slot spins.
Certain Games Have a Higher ADT Potential Than Others
A basic strategy player who is betting $100 at blackjack and is less valuable to the casino than a player betting $100 on roulette.
The most profitable games are the slot machines. Other than the largest players, known as ‘whales’, slot players always have the highest ADT among the general population of gamblers. Slot machines play fast, and generally, the house has a big advantage against the player. Also, there is the ever important factor: a slot machine does not require hourly pay, health insurance, dental, a retirement plan, and never calls in sick. Slot machines are pure profit for the casino.
The least profitable games tend to be either poker, blackjack, or craps. Poker is usually treated as a loss leader, meaning the house doesn’t make much money on poker, but uses it to draw in players, so that their friends or family will play slots, while they’re playing poker. Blackjack tends to run low on the margins; so low that the casinos have been changing the rules to make the game more profitable.
How ADT is calculated
There is no one universal formula for how to calculate ADT. Different casinos use various ways to calculate ADT, but there are general factors to how ADT is calculated: the game involved, the house edge of the game, the average amount bet per hand, and the length of time played. In a future article, I will go into more depth on this issue.
For the individual player, for any given day or year, their theoretical may not be their actual win or loss, but if the player plays long enough – like over a lifetime – their theoretical will move closer to becoming their actual win or loss.
In the end, whether or not you agree or disagree, almost every casino uses ADT to figure out how much in comps to give you.
EARNED VERSUS DISCRETIONARY COMPS
Let’s now talk about the freebies, themselves. To really understand comps, you must understand the difference between ‘earned’ and ‘discretionary’ comps.
Earned Comps
Before the player ever arrives at the table, the casino has devises an ADT formula by which it will dole out comps. These comps are known as ‘earned’ comps because the player accrues those comps as they play, and the accrual of the comp is determined strictly by the formula set by the casino.
Depending on which game you play, how fast you play that game, and how much you wager, the player will earn comps based strictly on your ADT.
Your earned comps are put into a bank, with the casino, for you to spend. So lets say you lose $100, the casino will place a percentage of your losses into the ‘bank of comps’ for you to spend.
For example, here is a pic of my bank of earned comp points before my last trip to Las Vegas. I had 5,669 points, which is the equivalent of $56.59 worth of comps that I could use to apply to the cost of room, meal, goods in the casino, etc. If I had spent $10.00, on lets say a sandwich, then the casino wold deduct 1000 points from my comp bank, resulting in a balance of 4,669.
Notice that $56.69 is not enough for a room for one night in Las Vegas, much less four nights in the middle of the Las Vegas strip.
What this means is that the house is merely using your own money, that you lost, to buy you that ‘free room, buffet, food, drink, or whatever. It’s arguable whether or not an earned comp can really be considered a comp, but that’s another issue for a later date.
Discretionary Comps
While the casino usually only cares only about ADT, there are exceptions. While it’s generally true that a casino doesn’t care if you win or lose, some wins or losses might be so big that it forces the casino to care. This is when the casino turns to something they refer to as ‘discretionary’ comps.
If you have a big win, the casino might be afraid that you will take your money to a competing casino and lose it at that competing casino. If you have a big loss, the casino is afraid that you’ve been burned so badly, they’ll lose a customer for the future.
So to keep you around, they will issue a comp at their discretion, just to keep you from wandering to the competition or quitting entirely. These discretionary comps usually require a host or casino supervisor to be involved.
Example of Discretionary Comp
Here is an email of my supervising host forcing a bean counter to comp me at Caesars Palace, which is a very expensive hotel.
Notice that the first person stated that I did not qualify for the comp. At the bottom of the email, the host, using his discretion, told the person to go ahead and book me for the room (nonsmoking king bed).
Casino Adt Calculator
The casino will do everything in its’ power not to issue a discretionary comp. A discretionary comp is a form of gambling for the casino. Casinos, ironically, do not like to gamble. They want to know that any comps they’ve issued, you’ve earned through their ADT calculation. With a discretionary comp, the casino is betting that you will pay back the comp by continuing with them in the future. It’s a risk for the casino.
In a future article, I will talk about how to acquire discretionary comps. For now, it’s important to just know the difference.
A BIT OF ADVICE
I’ll close by adding this piece of advice: never alter your play for comps because the casino is just giving you back a small portion of your losses (this is true even with discretionary comps).
Casino Adt Calculator Monthly
In a nutshell, that’s how comps work.